This was supposed to be the moment when the stuttering UK Independence party car got back on the road. Ever since the British people opted for Brexit this previously insurgent party had looked cut adrift, its message disconnected from the new reality of post-referendum Britain.
Thursday’s by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central, a working-class seat where an estimated 65 per cent of voters opted to leave the EU, offered Ukip and its leader of only 12 weeks, Paul Nuttall, the perfect opportunity for a comeback. Yet even when faced with these ideal conditions, and the most unpopular Labour party leader on record in Jeremy Corbyn, Ukip still failed to improve on its result in 2015. With nearly 25 per cent of the vote, the party added just two points to its score while Labour won the race comfortably with some 2,500 votes to spare. Nonetheless, the story of Ukip will still be told to students of politics as a classic case of how populists can trigger a “contagion from the right”. Ukip has been widely ridiculed for its failure to convert votes into seats, yet much of what it has advocated has now been absorbed into the mainstream, from Brexit and its support for grammar schools, to the party’s calls for a new immigration system — an identical version of which was regurgitated last year by the Conservatives’ Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. Come the future, political historians will award the fledgling Ukip the significance it deserves, a party that steered Britain towards Brexit and thus put the country firmly on a very different trajectory. Ukip is loathed by the liberal elite for good reason: it successfully brought to an end all that they cherish, from EU membership to the continuation of free movement of people across the bloc. Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage will still go down as the most significant politician of the current political era. Ukip still has a core vote, as evidenced by its garnering nearly a quarter of the votes cast in Stoke and a steady 10 per cent share in the national polls. At the next general election in 2020, the Ukip brand might also continue to draw between 5 and 15 per cent in seats across the country, complicating the paths to victory for the other parties. But such numbers are simply insufficient to overcome the first-past-the-post voting system, and reveal the ceiling that now contains Ukip — and perhaps always did. Were Ukip a seasoned campaigning organisation like the Liberal Democrats, then it might now invest in local elections, go back to square one and develop a broader message. But Ukip never really grasped the importance of pavement politics, nor was it ever genuinely interested in putting on offer a wider range of policies. To make matters worse for the party, come 2019 when the UK formally leaves the EU, Ukip will also be without its much-beloved elections to the European Parliament, which operate under a proportional system and therefore give minor parties a much better chance of gaining seats. The last European elections in 2014 gave Ukip 24 MEPs. This too will make it increasingly hard for the young party to remain visible, while also depriving it of the resources that have supported a cadre of MEPs in Brussels. With no salary and bleak electoral prospects, how long will even the true believers stick around? Today, the self-anointed People’s Army looks as if it has made its last stand. But tomorrow this chaotic and colourful cast of characters who briefly captivated British politics will be remembered for producing a more lasting effect on our national story. The writer is professor of politics and international relations at the university of Kent
Thursday’s by-election in Stoke-on-Trent Central, a working-class seat where an estimated 65 per cent of voters opted to leave the EU, offered Ukip and its leader of only 12 weeks, Paul Nuttall, the perfect opportunity for a comeback. Yet even when faced with these ideal conditions, and the most unpopular Labour party leader on record in Jeremy Corbyn, Ukip still failed to improve on its result in 2015. With nearly 25 per cent of the vote, the party added just two points to its score while Labour won the race comfortably with some 2,500 votes to spare. Nonetheless, the story of Ukip will still be told to students of politics as a classic case of how populists can trigger a “contagion from the right”. Ukip has been widely ridiculed for its failure to convert votes into seats, yet much of what it has advocated has now been absorbed into the mainstream, from Brexit and its support for grammar schools, to the party’s calls for a new immigration system — an identical version of which was regurgitated last year by the Conservatives’ Michael Gove and Boris Johnson. Come the future, political historians will award the fledgling Ukip the significance it deserves, a party that steered Britain towards Brexit and thus put the country firmly on a very different trajectory. Ukip is loathed by the liberal elite for good reason: it successfully brought to an end all that they cherish, from EU membership to the continuation of free movement of people across the bloc. Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage will still go down as the most significant politician of the current political era. Ukip still has a core vote, as evidenced by its garnering nearly a quarter of the votes cast in Stoke and a steady 10 per cent share in the national polls. At the next general election in 2020, the Ukip brand might also continue to draw between 5 and 15 per cent in seats across the country, complicating the paths to victory for the other parties. But such numbers are simply insufficient to overcome the first-past-the-post voting system, and reveal the ceiling that now contains Ukip — and perhaps always did. Were Ukip a seasoned campaigning organisation like the Liberal Democrats, then it might now invest in local elections, go back to square one and develop a broader message. But Ukip never really grasped the importance of pavement politics, nor was it ever genuinely interested in putting on offer a wider range of policies. To make matters worse for the party, come 2019 when the UK formally leaves the EU, Ukip will also be without its much-beloved elections to the European Parliament, which operate under a proportional system and therefore give minor parties a much better chance of gaining seats. The last European elections in 2014 gave Ukip 24 MEPs. This too will make it increasingly hard for the young party to remain visible, while also depriving it of the resources that have supported a cadre of MEPs in Brussels. With no salary and bleak electoral prospects, how long will even the true believers stick around? Today, the self-anointed People’s Army looks as if it has made its last stand. But tomorrow this chaotic and colourful cast of characters who briefly captivated British politics will be remembered for producing a more lasting effect on our national story. The writer is professor of politics and international relations at the university of Kent
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